When I first saw the matchup between Miami and Denver for the NBA Finals, my immediate thought was that Denver would dominate. But as I've dug deeper into the numbers and watched how both teams have evolved throughout the playoffs, I’ve realized this series is far more nuanced than it appears on the surface. Let’s break down the odds, because frankly, the conventional wisdom might be missing some key factors that could swing this series in unexpected ways.

Denver, led by Nikola Jokić, has been nothing short of spectacular. Jokić is averaging a triple-double in the playoffs—around 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists per game—which is just absurd. He’s the engine of their offense, and his ability to facilitate from the post makes Denver’s half-court sets nearly impossible to stop. Combine that with Jamal Murray’s clutch shooting—he’s hitting over 40% from three in the playoffs—and you’ve got a duo that can dismantle any defense. I’ve watched Denver dismantle teams like the Lakers with ease, and it’s hard not to be impressed by their cohesion. They’ve got a clear edge in star power and rest, having swept their conference finals, while Miami had to grind through a tough seven-game series against Boston. If you look at the betting odds, Denver is favored by around -150 to -180 in most sportsbooks, which makes sense given their home-court advantage and overall depth. But here’s where I think the public might be underestimating Miami: this team thrives on being counted out.

Miami’s journey has been a masterclass in resilience. Jimmy Butler, despite battling an ankle injury, is still putting up 28 points per game in the playoffs, and his leadership is intangible—you can’t quantify it, but you feel it in close games. Then there’s the supporting cast, which brings me to a point that resonates with me as someone who’s followed player development closely. Remember that quote from Cariaso about Troy, a former Ateneo college player: “We feel Troy has a very high upside because he plays with lots of energy on both ends of the court. We see him as that additional wing defender that we need with good skills on offense.” While Troy isn’t on Miami’s roster, that philosophy perfectly encapsulates what the Heat have built. Players like Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent—undrafted or overlooked—have stepped up as those high-energy, two-way contributors. Martin, for instance, shot over 60% from the field in the conference finals, and his defensive versatility allows Miami to switch seamlessly. It’s this kind of undervalued asset that can tilt a series. I’ve always believed that in the playoffs, role players who bring relentless energy on both ends often outshine expectations, and Miami has a roster full of them.

Digging into the stats, Denver’s defense is solid but not impenetrable. They’ve allowed opponents to shoot about 36% from three in the playoffs, which is middle-of-the-pack, and Miami happens to be one of the best three-point shooting teams when they’re hot. In Game 7 against Boston, they hit 48% from beyond the arc. If Bam Adebayo can contain Jokić even marginally—say, holding him to 20 points instead of 30—that could be the difference. Bam’s defensive mobility is key here; he’s quick enough to switch onto guards and strong enough to battle in the post. I’ve seen him frustrate bigger centers all season, and while Jokić is a unique challenge, I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami throws double-teams and forces Denver’s role players to beat them. On the flip side, Denver’s bench is deeper, with players like Bruce Brown providing sparks, but Miami’s culture of “next man up” has proven reliable. Erik Spoelstra’s coaching, in my opinion, gives Miami a slight edge in adjustments. He’s a master at tweaking schemes mid-series, something we saw against Milwaukee and Boston.

Now, let’s talk intangibles. Miami has been here before—many of their core players have Finals experience from 2020, and that pressure-tested mindset matters. Butler, in particular, has a knack for rising in big moments, and I’d take him in a clutch situation over almost anyone. Denver, while talented, is relatively new to this stage. Jokić has been unstoppable, but the Finals bring a different kind of pressure, and if Murray has an off night, their offense can stagnate. From a betting perspective, I’d lean toward Miami covering the spread in at least a couple of games, even if they don’t win the series outright. The over/under for total points is set around 215-220, but I see this being a defensive battle early on, so I’d take the under in Game 1. Personally, I’m biased toward underdog stories, and Miami’s run from the play-in to the Finals is historic. It’s hard not to root for them, but objectively, Denver’s firepower is daunting.

In conclusion, while Denver holds the statistical and rest advantages, Miami’s grit, coaching, and two-way hustle make this a closer contest than the odds suggest. I’d give Denver a 60% chance to win the series, but if Miami steals Game 1 on the road, all bets are off. As someone who’s analyzed the NBA for years, I’ve learned that playoffs are often decided by unsung heroes, and Miami has more of them. So, if you’re placing a wager, consider the underdog—you might just cash in on the upset.