The Rise and Fall of Chinese Football: An In-Depth RYM Analysis
When I first started following Chinese football over a decade ago, I genuinely believed we were witnessing the dawn of a golden era. The money flowing into the Chinese Super League felt unprecedented, with world-class players arriving for astronomical fees that made global headlines. I remember sitting in stadiums watching stars like Oscar and Hulk, thinking this investment would inevitably translate into national team success. Yet here we are today, looking at a system that somehow managed to spend billions while producing diminishing returns. The parallel that struck me recently came from an unexpected place - basketball. Watching the PBA Commissioner's Cup finals, I saw Justin Brownlee putting up 23 points and 12 rebounds for Barangay Ginebra, yet his eight turnovers, including that critical one in the final possession, ultimately undermined his impressive stat line. This reminded me so much of Chinese football's predicament - flashy surface numbers masking fundamental flaws that cost us when it mattered most.
The initial rise of Chinese football had all the makings of a success story. Between 2015 and 2019, Chinese clubs spent approximately $1.7 billion on international transfers alone. I attended matches where the atmosphere was electric, with newly built stadiums filled with hopeful fans. The national team even managed to pull off occasional upsets, and for a brief moment, it felt like we were closing the gap with footballing powers. But much like Brownlee's performance - impressive on paper with 23 points and 12 rebounds - the underlying issues were accumulating. Those eight turnovers represented the structural problems we chose to ignore: the focus on quick fixes rather than youth development, the inflation of domestic player salaries to unsustainable levels, and the neglect of grassroots infrastructure. I recall speaking with academy coaches who warned that we were building a house on sand, but their voices were drowned out by the excitement of big-name signings.
What fascinates me about the comparison to basketball is how teams like Barangay Ginebra distribute responsibility. While Brownlee had his turnover issues, players like Scottie Thompson, RJ Abarrientos, and Troy Rosario each contributed 17 points - a balanced offensive effort that didn't rely entirely on one star. Chinese football never achieved this kind of systemic balance. We became overly dependent on foreign players and coaches to solve our problems, rather than developing our own Thompson, Abarrientos, and Rosario equivalents. I've visited football academies across China where the training focused disproportionately on technical skills while neglecting decision-making under pressure - the very thing that separates good players from clutch performers. The result was a generation of players who looked great in training but consistently faltered in high-stakes moments, much like that final possession turnover that cost Brownlee's team.
The financial reckoning was something I saw coming from miles away. Around 2019, I began noticing concerning patterns during my interviews with club executives. The average Chinese Super League club was spending 150-200% of their revenue on player salaries, an utterly unsustainable model that made the entire system vulnerable. When the pandemic hit and ownership groups faced financial pressures elsewhere, the football bubble burst spectacularly. Clubs with famous names folded overnight, players went months without pay, and the league's television deal collapsed. This wasn't just a correction - it was a total system failure that exposed how shallow our football foundations really were. The eight turnovers in Brownlee's game mirror the countless unforced errors in Chinese football's governance: poor financial controls, inconsistent policy direction, and failure to build genuine fan engagement beyond temporary excitement over big signings.
What hurts most as someone who loves this sport is recognizing how much potential we squandered. I've traveled to countries with far fewer resources that produce better organized football systems because they understood the value of continuity and organic growth. The 17 points each from Thompson, Abarrientos, and Rosario represent the kind of distributed excellence we never developed. Our system created stars who earned European-level salaries without European-level competition, breeding complacency rather than excellence. The national team's performances became increasingly difficult to watch - not because the players lacked ability, but because they seemed to lack the fundamental understanding of high-pressure decision making that comes from proper development pathways.
Looking forward, I'm cautiously optimistic about the current rebuilding phase, though it will require patience we've previously lacked. The focus has rightly shifted to youth development, with over 150 football schools established in the past three years. We're finally seeing Chinese players venture to European leagues at younger ages, rather than waiting until their prime years. The financial regulations implemented, while painful, have forced clubs to live within their means. This feels like the necessary foundation we should have built fifteen years ago. The lesson from both Chinese football's rise and fall and that basketball game is clear: sustainable success requires balanced development across all aspects of the system. You can't just buy a few stars and hope they'll carry you - you need your version of Thompson, Abarrientos, and Rosario, developed through your own system, ready to perform when your star player has an off night or commits a critical turnover. The rebuilding won't be glamorous, and it certainly won't make international headlines like those massive transfers once did, but it might finally create something that lasts longer than a financial bubble.
